TFM Morning Update 05-22-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after yesterday’s turn around Tuesday action an remains in an upward trend since February. Heavy rainfall throughout the Midwest overnight was supportive.
Over the past 24 hours, significant rains have fallen through eastern Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. An estimated 20% of the corn crop still needs to be planted in this area and will face further delays.
Estimates for the Weekly US Ethanol production report for the week ending May 17 see production higher than last week at 1.017 million barrels per day which would be the highest in 6 weeks. Stockpiles are estimated at 24.399m bbl compared to 24.489m a week ago.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning with support from higher soybean meal while soybean oil trades lower. Meal has been in a consolidation pattern while soybean oil has trended higher over the past month.
Although the planting pace for soybeans is above the 5-year average, there are still a larger number of acres yet to be planted, and wet weather may push planting into June at the expense of better yields.
Yesterday, China was reported to have purchased at least two shipments of soybeans from the US in the past few days. This comes as Brazilian prices begin to firm, and the sales are a relief as there was concern that China would retaliate against the US due to the announced tariffs.

Wheat is trading higher again this morning and has generally been the leader in the grain complex. July Chicago wheat is trading 7 cents above the $7.00 mark after failing there yesterday and is at its highest levels since August of last year.
Yesterday, the Crop Progress report showed a 1% decline in the good to excellent rating for winter wheat, and overnight, HRW areas in Colorado and Kansas received rain, but this also came with hail which may have done some damage.
Overall, this large rally in wheat has come from concerns over global weather and specifically Russia and the Black Sea region which has been plagued with unseasonable frosts. The extent of the damage is unknown but is expected to be significant.

Amanda Brill