TFM Morning Update 05-25-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher in the front month but lower in the deferred contracts as tight on hand supplies support nearby corn.
The Corn Belt is still forecast to be dry over the next 10 days but there are some chances for light rains and temperatures should remain above normal.
Today’s focus will be the export sales report which will need to take into account last week’s sales cancellation of 10.7 mb by China, but this may already be priced in.
According to the US Department of Energy, ethanol weekly stocks fell by 5% to 22.041 mln bbl, and analysts were expecting 22.978.

Soybeans continue to be pulled lower by soybean meal, but soybean oil has trended slightly higher over the past few days thanks to increases in crude oil.
The front month crush margins keep getting tighter for processors and it doesn’t help that Brazil is shipping Argentina soybeans for them to crush to keep plants open.
Rains in areas of Argentina are slowing planting progress, but the rains are helping with soil moisture which should improve the outlook for upcoming wheat and barley crops.
Palm oil futures may increase significantly in the second half of this year due to an El Niño weather event.

All three wheat products are lower again as rains falling in the southern Plains trigger selling despite the fact that the poor crop likely won’t benefit too much from it at this point.
The situation in the Black Sea hasn’t improved and Russia is still refusing to allow ships into Ukraine’s largest port, and no ships have moved out of the other two ports for the past six days.
Russia’s wheat crop is now estimated at 86 mmt according to IKAR which is up from the previous estimate of 84 mmt. IKAR also boosted potential exports from 42 mmt to 44 mmt.
Today’s export sales report is not expected to show much activity on the trade wire as Russia picks up most of the export business.

Amanda Brill