TFM Morning Update 05-26-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher to begin the last day of the week with both old and new crop looking to make solid gains on the week.
According to DTN the average US corn basis is 34 cents over July, so cash and futures should converge sometime over the next month.
The transition from La Niña to El Niño is giving the assumption that more adequate rain will fall to support the USDA’s high trendline yield.
The corn crops that are experiencing moderate to intense drought rose by a percentage point to 26%, and at this time last year 20% of the crop was in drought.

Soybeans are trading higher along with both soybean meal an oil. Crude oil is higher while the dollar is lower.
July beans are on track for a higher close on the week and so is the Nov contract but not by as much.
The recent sharp decline in soybean meal due to lower than expected US demand has kept soybeans from trading significantly higher.
Mississippi River grain shipments have risen as barge rates have declines, and the shipments increased to 506k tones from 293k tons the previous week. Soybean shipments are up 66% week over week.

All three wheat products are trading higher today and could have a small close higher on the week if the trend continues.
This week, the impact of rainfall in HRW wheat areas kept prices from rising, and although the benefits from the late rain are small it was enough to trigger some selling.
The bullish factor has been what’s going on in the Black Sea and the lack of ships that are being allowed to export without being somehow delayed by Russia despite the extension of the deal.
India is expected to harvest a record wheat crop of 112.7 mmt in 2023 despite rains and hailstorms.

Amanda Brill