TFM Morning Update 05-28-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning pulled higher by wheat prices. The December contract ran up and tested the 200-day moving average again overnight but failed there again after an attempt two weeks ago.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress Report. Despite the rains last week and a wet 7-day forecast, planting has taken place whenever possible as deadlines for crop insurance approach.
As of Tuesday, May 21, funds were reported to have sold 49,991 contracts of corn which increased their net short position to 121,162 contracts.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning under pressure from lower soybean meal. There is pressure from Argentina and Brazil’s ongoing harvest, and weather concerns in the US don’t have as much of an impact on soybeans as they can be planted a bit later.
Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop has been revised lower by Datagro citing a sharp drop in average yields. On Friday, the consultancy lowered its estimate to 147.57 mmt from a recent guess of 147.96. This is well below the USDA’s estimate and cites a 10.8% drop in national yields.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net buyers of soybeans as of last Tuesday purchasing 15,609 contracts which left them net short just 26,426 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC wheat leading the way higher as Russian weather continues to be a problem. Russian consultancy, IKAR, has lowered its production forecast by 2 mmt to 81.5 mmt. This is 6.5 mmt below the USDA’s estimate.
In Argentina, the southern-central states of Buenos Aires and La Pampa are seen yielding 41% more this season than last year’s drought year with regional production seen at 4.7 mmt with help from increased planted acreage by 7%.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 3,658 contracts of wheat which decreased their net short position to 24,593 contracts.

Amanda Brill