TFM Morning Update 05-29-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower again today after a sharp drop yesterday as well. The July contract has led the way lower losing 13-1/2 cents on the week so far compared to December which has only lost 10 cents.
Pressure has come from necessary rains over the past week and more in the forecast throughout the the Corn Belt. Although longer term forecasts maybe hot and dry, these rains are a big benefit.
Estimates for the weekly EIA report see ethanol production higher than last week at 1.05m barrels per day compared to 1.029m last week. The average stockpile estimate is 24.587m bbl which would be down from a week ago.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning after rough trade yesterday that saw futures fall 14 cents before stopping at support at the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal is slightly lower while bean oil is higher.
Weather has been a primary factor in soybeans’ inability to rally, but they have been supported by the 100-day moving average since the middle of April along with tight new crop supplies.
Last night, the US trade court ruled that the tariffs imposed on China by President Trump were not legal which could remove the tariffs placed on soybeans and improve demand.

All three wheat classes are trading lower again today despite this week’s crop progress report that saw spring wheat crop ratings well below average guesses at 43%.
Yesterday morning’s rally following the crop progress numbers was quickly jumped on by sellers as funds continue to take any opportunity to sell higher wheat. They currently hold a net short position in Chicago wheat of around 110,000 contracts.
Canadian wheat production is estimated to be lower as a result of dryness in the southern Prairies. Production is estimated to be lowered by 3% to 35.5 mmt as soil moisture conditions deteriorate.

Amanda Brill