TFM Morning Update 05-30-2023

CORN

Corn is trading quietly with front month July slightly higher but deferred months a bit lower.
Weather forecasts have begun to show models turning cool and wet for the second half of June, but it should remain dry before then.
Brazil’s corn production has been estimated higher to 137 mmt by Safras & Mercado, and their previous estimate was 130 mmt.
July corn on the Bovespa exchange in Brazil ended at the equivalent of $4.95 while July corn on the Dalian exchange was lower at the equivalent of $9.38 a bushel, down 7% on the year.

Soybeans and both soy products are lower this morning as well as crude oil, possibly due to the favorable forecast in the second half of June.
For the moment, trade appears to be expecting a record crop from the US and has already priced in Brazil’s record crop, but weather could still be a factor in the US.
Soybean meal is taking a hit this morning and is still under pressure from California’s Proposition 12 requirements.
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as sellers of soybeans by 19,795 contracts reducing their net long position to just 4,147 contracts.

Wheat is trading lower along with the rest of the grain complex as recent rains in HRW wheat areas have fallen, and export demand remains poor.
Russia reportedly attacked central Ukraine with Iranian drones on Sunday which was the 1,500th anniversary of Ukraine’s capital. Attacks were also directed at the port of Odesa.
Crop exports out of the Black Sea corridor are the slowest they have been since the agreement was originally struck with only 3 vessels being completed for inspections per day.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net short position. They sold 6,019 contracts increasing their short position to 118,788 contracts.

Amanda Brill