TFM Morning Update 06-01-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher to begin the month with the deferred contracts leading, and for all the volatility last month, July corn actually gained 9 cents.
Rains that were expected in the 7-day forecast were pushed West of most growing areas into Saskatchewan and Montana while the rest of the Corn Belt should receive only scattered showers.
Brazilian corn remains cheap and on the Bovespa exchange, July corn is trading at the equivalent of $4.44 a bushel.
Refinitiv Commodities analysts expect US corn production to be fractionally better than the previous year citing rapid plantings and decent early season conditions.

Soybeans are trading higher as well to begin the month with both soy products higher but crude oil slightly lower.
Yesterday, November soybeans hit a new one-year low, and with the losses in soy products, crush premiums fell back to 1.60 a bushel, the lowest incentive for processors in two years.
Soybean meal has fallen sharply caused by feed demand concerns, chiefly California’s Prop 12, but yesterday’s rally in lean hogs breathed some life into meal futures.
Yesterday, shipping data from Reuters showed Brazil exporting 178,800 tonnes of soybeans to buyers in the US in a rare move, but still a bargain for the importers.

Wheat is trading higher with July KC having climbed back above the 8-dollar mark. While good to excellent ratings improves slightly, there are major concerns about the US HRW wheat crop.
The SRW wheat crop is looking good so far and the spring wheat crop is mostly getting planted, but it seems that the US wheat crop will be similar to the low levels of the past two years.
Russian farmers have begun to suspend wheat deliveries to exporters while waiting for higher prices after the export duty will be reduced on June 7 which is causing wheat to pile up in Russia.
Canadian wheat production for 23/24 is expected to be in line with last season despite area expansions due to poor soil moisture conditions in the Southern Prairies. Canadian wheat production is estimated at 33.3 mmt, down 1% from last season.

Amanda Brill