TFM Morning Update 06-02-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning with July down 9 cents and Dec down only 3. Dryness in the short term has been a concern, but today’s forecast calls for more scattered showers.
Yesterday evening, the Senate voted to suspend the debt ceiling through January 1, 2025, avoiding risk of default and giving traders some confidence back.
While rain is forecast in the second half of June, dry weather in the interim has been a concern and was likely behind yesterday’s gains.
Export sales will be released at 7:30 and will likely show disappointing numbers again as Brazilian corn remains cheaper than the US.

The soy complex is beginning the day mixed with soybeans and soybean meal lower, but soybean oil higher as it gains support from higher crude and higher palm oil.
Yesterday’s rally can be attributed to oversold technicals and a dry 10 day forecast in which the Midwest will receive only scattered showers with the bulk of rain falling in the western Plains.
Soybean export sales are also expected to be low again today as Brazil dominates the market having already exported 15.1 mmt. They have harvested 5.70 billion bushels at this point, the most by any country.
Yesterday, USDA’s NASS said that 187 mb of US soybeans were crushed in April, up 3% from a year ago, and that soybean oil stocks at the end of April totaled 2.08 billion pounds, the highest in over a year.

Wheat is mixed with Chicago relatively unchanged, KC down slightly, and Minn up slightly. All three products are on track for lower closes on the week.
The war in Ukraine doesn’t seem to matter to traders anymore despite the fact that vessels leaving the Black Sea are sparse and that Russia is intentionally trying to slow inspections and traffic down.
Today’s export sales report will likely show shipments of wheat below the necessary 39 mb needed to meet the USDA’s estimates and could result in a revision lower on the WASDE for exports.
Argentina’s wheat planting has been delayed due to poor soil moisture with only 6.3% planted, and China’s wheat crop in the Henan province is receiving too much rain which could result in a loss of 10 to 20 mmt.

Amanda Brill