TFM Morning Update 06-04-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower again this morning and is on track for a sixth consecutively lower close if prices do not recover. Pressure is coming from yesterday’s USDA data that showed another jump in planting progress.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed that 91% of the corn crop is planted which compares to 83% last week and the 5-year average of 89%. 75% of the crop is emerged which compares with 58% a week ago and the average of 73%.
While planting progress is acting as a bearish factor, a closer look at the numbers will show that 91% of the crop planted as of May 31 is actually one of the slowest paces in history which is closer to 2022 and 2011 but beats 2019. 2019 and 2022 are both included in the 5-year average we are comparing to.
The USDA gave its first impression on crop ratings giving corn a good to excellent rating of 75% which compares to the trade guess of 70% and 64% a year ago.

Soybeans are trading lower again today as the downward slide continues pressured by South America’s harvest and the seemingly good planting conditions in the US. Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is slightly lower.
Yesterday’s crop progress report said that 78% of the soybean crop has been planted which compares to the trade guess of 80%, 68% a week ago, and the 5-year average of 73%. The crop is 55% emerged which compares to 39% a week ago and the average of 52%.
US soybean crushing for April was seen at 178 million bushels which was down 4.9% from the same time last year. Lower crush margins have been a bearish factor.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as they continue to work down from their recent contract highs. Funds are likely adding new shorts, but producers are likely hedging new crop as well which could be adding pressure.
For spring wheat, yesterday’s Crop Progress Report said that 94% of the crop has been planted which compares to 91% a year ago and the 5-year average of 90%. 78% of the crop is emerged which compares to the average of 69%, and 74% has been rated good to excellent which compares to 64% a year ago.
In winter wheat, the USDA said that 49% of the crop has been rated good to excellent which is up a point from last week and compares to 36% a year ago. 83% is headed which compares to the average of 78%, and 6% is harvested which compares to the average of 3% for this time.

Amanda Brill