TFM Morning Update 06-05-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher as hot and dry conditions are forecast over the next week with some scattered showers, but according to the GFS model, Sunday and Monday should bring good rains.
Today’s Crop Progress report will likely show a decline in corn ratings due to the weather and lower soil moisture levels.
Mexico has said that they would defend their position on genetically modified corn, but that the use of their local corn for human consumption won’t affect the trade with the US.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of corn by 46,962 contracts which reduced their net short position to 51,065 contracts.

Soybeans are beginning the week higher, but soy products are mixed with soybean meal slightly higher and soybean oil lower despite higher crude.
Just as corn is trading the weather very closely, so are soybeans. The recent hot and dry weather has been supportive, but soybeans can wait longer to receive good rains than corn can, and barring a drought, US soybean production is expected to be large.
Friday’s WASDE report will likely show small changes but the largest one may be a revision lower to Argentina’s production. The USDA last estimated it at 7 to 8 mmt higher than other analysts and exchanges.
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as net sellers of soybeans by 3,618 contracts leaving them net long only 529 contracts at this point.

Wheat is higher this morning due to the weather as well as attention on Friday’s WASDE report which will likely show lower US production.
One ship departed a port in Ukraine over the weekend carrying 33,000 mt of wheat, and 5 other ships left the Black Sea carrying 210,471 mt of agricultural products.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net sellers of wheat by 8,210 contracts increasing their net short position to a very large 126,998 contracts.

Amanda Brill