TFM Morning Update 06-06-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning following yesterday’s crop progress report that showed ratings falling, but support is also coming from a 20-cent rally in wheat today as well.
Corn is now estimated at 96% planted, above 92% last week, but good to excellent conditions have fallen due to recent dryness. Ratings have fallen to 64% from 69% a week ago.
Yesterday at midday, weather forecasts changed and called for more rain within the next 7 days on the GFS model, but traders are unsure if this will hold.
Yesterday’s export inspections showed 46.5 mb inspected for 22/23 putting total inspections down 32% from the previous year.

Soybeans are trading higher along with corn following yesterday’s crop progress, but soy products are mixed with soybean meal higher again but soybean oil lower due to lower palm oil prices.
Crop progress showed that soybeans were 91% planted compared to 83% last week, emergence is at 74% vs 56% a week ago, and the good to excellent rating is at 62% which was below trade estimates at 65%.
On Friday, the USDA will release this month’s WASDE and expectations are for old crop ending stocks to rise slightly and for Argentinian production to be lowered.
India’s palm oil imports hit a 27-month low as buyers seek cheaper soft oils, and palm oil stocks in Malaysia are expecting an output surge that could pressure prices further.

Wheat is leading the grain complex higher this morning following news that a Ukrainian dam was blown up, fighting there has escalated, and Russia says it does not see a way forward to renew the Black Sea Grain deal.
Australian wheat production is now expected to decrease by a third due to extreme drought and the second driest May on record.
Wheat sowing is beginning in Argentina, the major origin country of wheat imported by Brazil. 6.3% of the crop has reportedly been sown so far.
Crop progress for wheat showed winter wheat 4% harvested vs 5% a year ago with a good to excellent rating of 36% vs 24% last week. Spring wheat is 93% planted and 76% is emerged.

Amanda Brill