TFM Morning Update 06-06-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning as prices begin to reverse from steady selling pressure throughout the week. Funds were estimated to have sold an additional 5,500 contracts yesterday, but futures are now too oversold.
Yesterday’s ethanol report is supportive and likely a partial reason for the turnaround today as it reported that 1.079 million barrels were produced per day which is the largest in history for this week out of the year.
Estimates for today’s export sales report have corn exports between 700k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 1,015k. This would compare to last week’s 998k tons.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning thanks to support from higher soybean meal and oil. Palm oil prices are currently driving soybean oil higher as futures are correcting from a sharp two-day sell off.
Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 12.08 mmt in June which would compare with 13.84 mmt in the same period a year ago. Exports of soybean meal are expected to drop slightly as well.
Soybean meal may yet see some support as Brazil’s heavily flooded Rio Grande do Sul caused large losses in production that may have otherwise be exported to Argentina to be crushed.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning but July Chicago wheat is still nearly 70 cents off the contract high that was posted last week. There was likely profit taking from funds last week combined with farmer selling.
In Russia, SovEcon has lowered its estimate for wheat production again to 80.7 mmt from a previous estimate of 82.1 mmt citing lower yield potential as a result of the May frosts and delays of spring wheat planting in Siberia.
Estimates for today’s export sales report in wheat are between 100k and 600k tons with an average guess of 328k tons. This would compare with 321k tons last week.

Amanda Brill