TFM Morning Update 06-07-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning as the market continues to trade weather which is now calling for a large front that should move from Minnesota and into Iowa and Illinois.
Recent dryness has been a bullish factor and caused crop conditions to decline, but as soon as the Corn Belt gets a good rain in the upcoming weeks, crops should perk back up.
Friday’s WASDE report will most likely show a decline in Argentinian corn production as the USDA has stayed far above other analysts, but there is a slight chance they lower US yields too.
Brazilian corn exports continue to climb and reached 1.66 mmt in June vs 1.503 at this time a year ago.

Soybeans are mixed this morning with front month July higher but Nov lower, and both soybean oil and meal higher. Crude oil is higher as well.
Brazilian soy exports reached 13.11 mmt in June compared to 9.946 the previous year. Although Brazil dominates exports, the US had a surprise sale of soybeans to Spain yesterday.
Chinese May soybean imports reached a record 12 mmt which was the highest ever in a month, and June imports could reportedly be even higher.
Brazilian farmers will be receiving 7.6 billion reais to cover expenses in a new farming credit program for the 23/24 season.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago higher but KC and Minn slightly lower. The quiet action is a bit confusing given the escalation in Ukraine yesterday that affects wheat growing areas.
The destruction of the dam in Ukraine presumably by Russia threatens agricultural production as the dam was used to help control irrigation.
The EU’s soft wheat exports rose 11.4% year over year to 28.9m tons, with leading destinations Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria.
Ukrainian grain exports are at 45.6 million tonnes so far for the July-June season and are down from 47.2 mmt the same time a year ago.

Amanda Brill