TFM Morning Update 06-07-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after yesterday’s run higher and is hovering right at the 100-day moving average having trouble breaking above it solidly.
Yesterday’s strength came from short covering by the funds who were estimated to buy back approximately 10,000 contracts yesterday after being heavy sellers the 7 previous days. It also came from good export sales numbers which were on the high end of expectations. Lower wheat today is likely dragging corn lower.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has released a weekly crop report in which corn production was left unchanged at 46.5 mmt, but harvest has reportedly advanced from 30.1% complete last week to 35.1% complete.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a nearly 23-cent gain in the July contract yesterday, and futures are struggling to break through their 100-day moving average at $12.00. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
Part of yesterday’s strength in soybeans was related to potential changes in Brazil’s tax code that could make Brazilian exports more expensive and could boost US exports, but the tax code has not been passed yet and needs to be approved by Congress.
In Argentina, the soybean crop production estimates were unchanged by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange at 50.5 mmt, but harvest progress was increased from 86% to 92.2%.

All three wheat classes are trading lower today and are being led by KC wheat. Wheat did not follow corn and soybeans higher yesterday and are now on track for their eighth consecutively lower close.
In Argentina, planting has been off at a good pace thanks to the dry weather with nearly 26% of the planted acres completed. Estimates for the 24/25 wheat crop are unchanged at 6.2 mmt.
World wheat stockpiles are expected to fall by 1.6% in 24.25 totaling 306.8 mmt. There is potential for production to fall in the EU, Turkey, the UK, and Ukraine. On the other hand, the US, India, and Australia are expected to have above normal production.

Amanda Brill