TFM Morning Update 06-08-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning following another change in the forecast yesterday evening that calls for wetter weather.
The GFS model has been calling for more rain than the European but yesterday the European model started following the GFS more closely.
Today’s export sales will likely show fair to poor numbers as South American offers remain significantly cheaper.
Brazilian corn production has been estimated higher by Bloomberg around 130.3 mmt, 4.7 mmt higher than the previous estimate.

Soybeans and soybean meal are mixed with front months higher but deferred months lower, but soybean oil is slightly higher along with crude oil
Bloomberg has estimated the Brazilian soy crop higher by 0.7 mmt for a total of 155.6 mmt.
In May, Brazil’s shipments to China rose 60% compared to the same period last year, and shipments to Argentina were 979,000, a record high for that destination.
China’s soy imports have hit a record after previously delayed for inspection vessels were able to unload at once. The imports are 66% higher than the previous month.

Wheat is trading slightly higher after yesterday’s sharp selloff. The wheat fundamentals are strong but the market is largely controlled by funds who have an advantage in this thinly traded market.
Traders are waiting to hear the extent of the impact of Ukraine’s destroyed dam which has displaced thousands of residents and ruined the irrigation system.
India received 57% below average rains in the first week of June despite a large monsoon waiting off the southern coast.
Traders are expecting that Friday’s WASDE will show a jump in US winter wheat yields over last month’s USDA estimate.

Amanda Brill