TFM Morning Update 06-10-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as prices recover from last week’s heavy selling pressure. The recent decline in prices has caused basis levels to narrow and has also caused the July/September spread to tighten.
The weather forecast for the Corn Belt has turned to mostly dry for at least the next 1o days which should be a relief to many fields which have been saturated, but if the dryness continues for too long, it could turn into another problem.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling a large amount of corn as of June 4th. They sold 79,229 contracts which left them net short 212,706 contracts.

Soybeans are trading a bit higher to start the week and are bull spread with the majority of gains in the front month. The July contract seems to have found some recent support at the $11.75 level, but prices are now only 43 cents off of the contract low in February. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
Due to inaccuracies in reporting, NOPA revised its April soybean crush in the US up to 169.436 million bushels from 166.034 mb. Despite the increase, it was still the lowest monthly crush since September.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as aggressive sellers in the soy complex adding 45,523 contracts to their short position as of June 4. This leaves them net short 59,741 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower. This comes despite higher corn and soybeans which indicates that traders are still taking advantage of the recent overbought conditions and producers are still making cash sales.
Russia has sent its first shipment of wheat to Brazil from the port of Vystotsky in the Leningrad region at the beginning of June. The shipment was reportedly 31,000 tonnes of wheat and was the first shipment from the Russian Baltic Sea port. Argentina was the largest exporter of wheat to Brazil in 2023.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 6,253 contracts of wheat as of June 4. This increased their net short position to 31,684 contracts. This remains above their net short position that was nearing 100,000 contracts in the end of April.

Amanda Brill