TFM Morning Update 06-10-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower again today following steep losses in yesterday’s session as funds continue piling onto their short positions with weather remaining beneficial.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw the good to excellent rating for corn rising to 71% which was above the average trade guess and compared to 69% last week. 87% of the crop is now emerged which compares to 78% a week ago and the average of 87%.
This Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and early estimates see corn production slightly lower from last month but relatively unchanged. Ending stocks are expected to fall slightly to 1.789 bb.

Soybeans are mixed again today with the two front months trading higher while the deferred months are lower. While the rest of the grain complex sold off sharply yesterday, soybeans were only slightly lower. Soybean meal is currently lower while soybean oil is higher.
The trade talks between the US and China yesterday reportedly went well but a deal is has not yet been released. Trade deals with Japan, India, Vietnam, and South Korea are reportedly very close.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw the good to excellent rating for soybeans up 1 point from last week at 68%. This was on par with trade estimates. Iowa is leading the pack with ratings of 80%. 90% of the soybean crop is planted and 75% is emerged.

All three wheat classes are trading lower again today after sharp losses posted yesterday. Paris milling wheat is lower again and has been dragging US futures down with it. Improving crop ratings have been bearish as well.
Sov Econ has just increased their estimates for the Russian wheat crop by 1.8 mmt to 82.8 mmt and has also increased export estimates. Russian FOB values are cheap around $225/mt.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw the spring wheat good to excellent rating improve by 3% to 53% while winter wheat was up 2 points to 54%. 4% of the winter wheat crop is now harvested and 82% of spring wheat is emerged.

Amanda Brill