TFM Morning Update 06-12-2023


  • Corn is trading higher this morning after weekend rains left much to be desired. Rain only fell in select areas of the Belt but areas that did receive rain got a healthy amount.
  • There is only light rain forecasted near Colorado and east of Michigan today, and areas that did not receive rain over the weekend are struggling.
  • Dr. Cordonnier lowered his US corn yield to 179 bps which would bring production down to 14.94 billion bushels. Acreage was left alone at 91.5 mb.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as of June 6 buying back 6,573 contracts of corn, decreasing their net short position to 44,492 contracts.


  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning but have not kept up with the gains in corn. Dryness over the weekend has been a bullish factor, but soybeans can wait a bit longer for rain before it becomes an issue.
  • Light to moderate rains are forecast across the Midwest this week, but models are mostly dry west of Indiana and north of Missouri.
  • Malaysian May palm oil stocks rose to 1.69m tons from 1.5m tons in April which has been a main pressure for lower soybean oil lately.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net long position buying 13,452 contracts, increasing their net long position to 13,981 contracts.


  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and Minn higher but KC lagging behind as weather, Russia, and small changes in the WASDE affect prices.
  • Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have all received beneficial rains recently improving the HRW wheat crop, but further north, the majority of the western Canadian Prairies were mostly dry, although rains are forecast later this week.
  • USDA’s NASS made a small increase to its winter wheat production estimate going from 1.130 bb to 1.136 bb, largely based on an 11 mb increase in the HRW wheat estimate.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back some of their short position by 7,524 contracts, decreasing their net short position to 119,474 contracts.


Amanda Brill

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