TFM Morning Update 06-12-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as weather and today’s WASDE will likely direct upcoming market direction.
Above normal temperatures across the Corn Belt with less opportunities for moisture, especially in the eastern Corn Belt are forecast into the end of the month.
Expectations for today’s WASDE report are for old crop US ending stocks to fall by 38 mb to 1.98 bb, likely due in combination of higher exports and corn for ethanol usage. New crop ending stocks are expected to move slightly lower to 2.05 bb.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after yesterday’s drop as prices continue their recent sideways chop.
South American soybean crop size estimates will be closely watched in today’s WASDE report. Expectations are for Brazilian soybean production to drop 2.2 mmt to 151.8 mmt. Argentine soybean production is expected to come in slightly lower at 49.8 mmt.
US old crop soybean ending stocks are expected to rise by 8 mb to 348 mb. New crop ending stocks are expected to rise by 10 mb to 455 mb.

Wheat is lower this morning following yesterday’s higher closes. Early discussions around yields in the US have been mostly as good or better than expected.
Expectations for today’s WASDE report are for ending stocks to rise slightly for both old and new crop US wheat.
World ending stocks are expected to fall slightly for both old and new crop wheat from their May estimates. Russian, Ukraine and European wheat crop size estimates will all be watched closely by the trade.
Russia on Tuesday issued a state of emergency in the Rostov region due to frosts and drought, this is the largest grain producing region in Russia. Earlier in the day the head of Russia’s grain union said up to 30% of winter grain had been hit by May frosts.

Keegan Madigan