TFM Morning Update 06-13-2025

CORN

Dalian corn futures moved lower, while the USDA pegged U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.365 billion bushels and 2025/26 at 1.750 billion, citing stronger 2024/25 exports.
Global 2025/26 corn ending stocks were trimmed to 275.2 mmt from 277.8 mmt in May; China’s 2024/25 corn imports were lowered by 1 mmt to 7 mmt, but 2025/26 was left unchanged at 10 mmt.
Weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 791,000 mt, bringing total commitments to 65.9 mmt vs 52.3 mmt a year ago; the USDA’s projection is 67.31 mmt, up from 58.23 mmt last year.

Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil, and palm oil futures were all higher, with support from broader commodity strength and anticipation that next week the EPA could announce new biofuel policy.
The USDA estimated U.S. soybean carryout at 350 million bushels for 2024/25 and 295 million for 2025/26, though some see 2025/26 carryout closer to 500 million due to weaker export expectations; world 2025/26 ending stocks were raised to 125.3 mmt from 124.3 mmt in May.
Weekly U.S. soybean export sales were just 61,000 mt, with unknown sales down 260,000 mt; total commitments are at 48.7 mmt vs 43.7 mmt last year, with the USDA’s annual goal at 50.35 mmt.

The USDA held its U.S. wheat crop estimate steady at 1.921 billion bushels and projected 2024/25 carryout at 841 million bushels and 2025/26 at 898 million, with the year-over-year decline driven by higher export expectations.
Global 2025/26 wheat ending stocks were lowered to 262.7 mmt from 265.7 mmt in May, reflecting tighter global supply.
Weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 389,000 mmt; total commitments reached 5.9 mmt vs 4.8 mmt last year, with the USDA’s export projection at 22.45 mmt vs 22.3 mmt last year.

Matt Mattke