TFM Morning Update 06-13-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning despite yesterday’s WASDE report that was relatively neutral, but ongoing rains in the forecast for the northwest Corn Belt may be adding some bullish momentum.
In yesterday’s report, trade was expecting the USDA to revise ending stocks a bit lower due to increased exports and ethanol grind, but it was left unchanged. In addition, it was expected that the Argentinian corn crop would be revised lower due to the recent disease, but that stayed the same at 53 mmt.
In Mexico, there is a drought expected which could damaged their 2024 corn production again. They are expected to produce 25.25 mmt of corn, but could be forced to import more from the US depending on the damage done.

Soybeans are essentially unchanged to start the day. As in corn, yesterday’s WASDE report was neutral to slightly bearish, but prices slid in accordance. Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is lower.
In yesterday’s report, US soybean ending stocks were increased by 10 mb to 455 mb as a result of a decline in crush demand. US old crop ending stocks were increased as well by 10 mb, but world ending stocks were slightly lowered.
As far as South American production goes, trade was looking for a decrease and got one although it was very small. Brazilian soybean production was only lowered by 1 mmt to 153 mmt. CONAB will release its estimate this morning, but the USDA is likely still way above their number, and is likely too high considering the recent flooding that destroyed over 2 mmt of soybeans.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way higher. KC wheat is struggling to move higher due to ongoing harvest pressure.
Yesterday’s WASDE report was supportive as the USDA confirmed that due to the dry weather in Russia and Ukraine, wheat production has been revised lower. The USDA took 5 mmt off Russian production and 1.5 mmt off Ukrainian production. Total world production fell by 7.4 mmt.
US wheat ending stocks were lowered for 24/25 to 758 mb from 766 mb, but old crop ending stocks were unchanged. Production estimates for the US were slightly increased, but overall, world ending stocks fell due to global weather issues.

Amanda Brill