TFM Morning Update 06-14-2023


  • Corn is trading lower this morning with July leading the way down as first notice day approaches and funds begin to roll into deferred months.
  • The forecast for the northwestern Plains and southeastern Corn Belt has turned wetter over the next five days, while states near the great lakes are only expecting moderate amounts.
  • Potential frosts for Brazil’s second crop corn have not caused prices to move higher and are still sitting at the equivalent of $4.62 a bushel.
  • Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is now being estimated at a record 96.3 mmt, 12% above last season’s production.


  • All three soy products rallied impressively yesterday, in part due to the dry weather, but also due to the pending EPA announcement which has been delayed.
  • The EPA was scheduled to give their announcement on biodiesel requirements today which could be very supportive for the soy complex, but the decision is now postponed to June 21.
  • NOPA May US soybean crush is seen at 175.880 million bushels as processing pace likely continues to slow. Some producers have said that they have idled plants for maintenance.
  • Soybeans met some technical resistance yesterday against the 50-day moving average and one-month high, but are far below the 100-day average.


  • Wheat is trading lower along with corn and soybeans this morning as the US struggles to compete with Russian and Ukrainian export offers.
  • Russia is reportedly considering leaving the Ukrainian grain deal after Putin expressed frustration about the destinations of the Ukrainian wheat on TV yesterday.
  • French wheat stock estimates increased as their season comes to a close with their stockpile seen at 2.89m tons, 3.8% above last season.
  • Outside of poor weather in the US, northern Europe and Russia’s spring wheat areas are dry, and China’s Henan province is receiving excessive rain that is damaging the crop.


Amanda Brill

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