TFM Morning Update 06-15-2023

CORN

Corn moved higher overnight after forecasts shifted rain to the southwest which is causing more heat and dryness in the Midwest.
There are flood watches in Wyoming and southern Gulf states, but the central Corn Belt is expected to be bone dry today, while the southwestern Corn Belt is expected to get rain.
December corn is trading above the 100-day moving average, and a close above that level would be the first one since November of last year.
Estimates for corn in today’s weekly sales report show an average of 275k tons, but demand has been light and those levels could turn out lower.

Soybeans and both soy products are trading higher today with soybean oil leading the way, and crude oil is higher as well.
Soybeans are dealing with similar weather conditions to the corn crop, and although they have a larger window to wait for rain, the forecast still has traders worried.
Argentina’s Rosario grain exchange cut their soybean production estimate again today by 5% to 20.5 mmt. The previous estimate was 21.5 mmt, both way below the USDA’s 25 mmt estimate.
India’s May palm oil imports fell to a 27-month low dropping 14% from a month ago after buyers started cancelling expensive cargoes in favor of soy and sunflower oil.

All three wheat products are trading higher with Chicago leading the way as US wheat continues to face challenges and is on track for the smallest harvest in 50 years for winter wheat.
US ending wheat stocks are estimated to have their lowest ending stocks to use ratio in 10 years, but the market has still been unable to find demand for US wheat.
Southern Alberta and the Dakotas are receiving rain today, but better rain chances are expected across the northwestern US Plains in the middle of next week that could last until the end of June.
The European grain crops are estimated to be cut by 5.4 mmt due to dryness with wheat and barely mainly in trouble.

Amanda Brill