TFM Morning Update 06-16-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher again today on continued dryness in the eastern Corn Belt which may turn out to be a high risk area in 2023.
The southwestern Corn Belt is forecast to receive moderate rains over the next few days, while Wyoming and Colorado are dealing with flood watches.
Brazilian corn prices traded higher yesterday as a result of price movement in the US, and beans on the Bovespa exchange are trading at the equivalent of $4.84 per bushel.
Regardless of the dry weather, the US will have trouble competing with Brazil for exports as their corn crop is expected to be record large.

Soybeans are trading higher again this morning along with soybean meal and oil as dry weather continues to keep traders buying grains.
November soybeans have rallied $1.83 just since the end of May and are now threatening to close above the 100-day moving average for the first time since the beginning of the year.
Yesterday’s drought monitor showed very few areas across the Midwest that aren’t being threatened by drought at this time which is rare for the month of June.
NOPA crush that was released yesterday was also behind the rally with 177.915 mb being crushed, the highest ever for May.

All three wheat products are trading higher again today with support from the corn and soybean markets which are on fire. Funds will need to begin covering their large net short position.
In the US, ending wheat supplies for 23/24 are being estimated at their lowest levels in 16 years with the lowest ending stocks to use ratio in 10 years.
The winter wheat harvest is beginning and will be among the lowest in 50 years, and the spring wheat crop will be confined to its smallest area in 50 years.
In northern Europe, Russia, and India, conditions are dry, and in wheat growing regions of China, conditions are too wet.

Amanda Brill