TFM Morning Update 06-17-2025

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Thursday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

CORN

Corn is slightly higher to start the day following yesterday’s sharp decline. July futures have found some support at the $4.30 level but have struggled to rally alongside soybeans and wheat recently.
The past 6 to 10 days have seen above normal rainfall which caused a reduction in drought areas in the Corn Belt, but forecasts are beginning to turn dry, especially in the West. A hot and dry July and August are still in the forecast.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw the corn crop’s good to excellent rating improving by one point from last week to 72%. The entire crop has been planted, and 94% is now emerged.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower after July futures rallied nearly to $10.80 yesterday thanks to extreme bullishness in soybean oil. Yesterday, soybean oil closed expanded limit up, so the whole soy complex will have expanded limits again today. So far, soybean meal and oil are slightly lower.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush showed May soybean crush at 192.83 million bushels which was below most trade estimates but was higher than the previous month and was the strongest May crush ever.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean conditions decline by 2 points to 66% good to excellent. This was also 2 points below the average trade estimate. 93% of the crop is planted and 84% is emerged, slightly above the 5-year average of 83% at this time.

Wheat is trading higher this morning following a mixed bag in Crop Progress but one that still showed crop ratings well behind their average years of 76% good to excellent. Funds hold a very large net short position making them susceptible to short covering.
Yesterday’s export inspections report saw wheat inspections at 389k tons which compared to 324k last week and 412k a year ago. Top destinations were to Nigeria, the Philippines, and Thailand.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw winter wheat ratings fall by 2 points to 52% good to excellent while spring wheat improved by 4 points to 57% good to excellent. 10% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested.

Amanda Brill