TFM Morning Update 06-21-2023

CORN

Corn is trading sharply higher following continued dry weather and yesterday’s Crop Progress report which showed worsening conditions.
Crop ratings for corn fell to 55% good to excellent which was 6% below the previous week and below analyst expectations. Illinois dropped by 12% and Iowa fell by 11%.
Iowa and Illinois received some rain on Sunday that was not factored into the crop ratings, but more rains would be needed this week to keep soil moisture from getting worse.
Analysts at Barchart reduced their forecast for US corn production estimating yield at 177.76 bpa compared to previous estimates of 177.92 bpa.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning thanks to gains in soybean meal, but soybean oil is lower after the EPA’s biofuel announcement.
Reports that the 2024 and 2025 EPA blending mandates are lower than were previously stated in their proposal was a disappointment and soybean oil is lower as a result.
Good to excellent ratings for soybeans fell by 6% and are down to 54% with Illinois falling 14% and Iowa down 10%. Crop progress showed more deterioration than expected.
China’s soybean imports from Brazil jumped 40% in May compared with imports from a year ago and highlight the competitive export market for soybeans.

All three wheat contracts are trading higher this morning, in part due to declining spring wheat conditions but also in sympathy with corn and soybeans.
Spring wheat good to excellent ratings fell by 9% to 51% last week which compares to 59% a year ago, but winter wheat ratings were steady at 38% good to excellent.
Russia keeps its grip on the export market with Algeria most likely purchasing between 580k and 620k mmt from the country.
Wheat crops globally are not looking great with weather issues in the US, Russia, Europe, China, and Argentina. China is too wet while the rest listed are too dry.

Amanda Brill