CORN
- Corn is trading lower this morning after overbought conditions caused traders to slow down on purchasing, and weather models shifted slightly overnight.
- Weather models are now showing greater chances for more substantial rain in the 7-day forecast for the entire state of Iowa, but Illinois and Indiana are expected to stay very dry.
- The recent drop in corn conditions over the past three weeks will likely force the USDA to lower yields on the July WASDE report and therefore ending stocks.
- Exports have been stale as US competitiveness weakens due to high prices, especially as Brazil is slated to harvest a big second crop corn.
SOYBEANS
- Soybeans are trading lower along with corn, and both soybean oil and meal are lower as well. The entire soy complex has expanded limits today after soybean oil closed limit down yesterday.
- The slight changes in the weather forecast are pressuring soybeans along with the overbought technicals, and the sharp decline in soybean oil has not helped.
- The new RFS mandates for 2024 and 2025 show that we would have less soybean processing demand for soybean oil to be used in renewable diesel production.
- Argentina has become the second largest buyer of Brazilian soy products this year behind China after their drought severely impacted their crop which they need to meet crush expectations.
WHEAT
- Wheat is trading lower this morning along with corn, and weather forecasts are now showing that spring wheat areas will receive some needed rainfall.
- India’s wheat output for 2023 is at least 10% lower than the government’s estimate which has caused a sharp increase in local prices over the past 2 months.
- The Russian wheat crop has also been cut by 1.2 mmt for 2023 due to dry conditions in main growing regions and poor soil moisture.
- Russia has stated that they would not renew the Black Sea grain deal again which is a statement they have made many times, but Ukrainian officials are not optimistic that it will be extended this time.
Author
Amanda Brill