TFM Morning Update 06-22-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning in quiet trade overall, but good weather in the I-states have pressured prices sharply. July corn is down 1-3/4 cents to $4.15-3.4 while December is down 3/4 cent to $4.43-1/4.
Brazilian corn output for the 25/26 season is estimated at 139.94 mmt according to consulting firm Safras & Mercado. This is down from the 140.1 mmt estimated in May and is also lower than last season’s 140.05 mmt. Yields for winter corn were cut slightly.
Iran has declared that the Strait of Hormuz is closed again, but it has not truly been open since before the war. US fertilizer imports from Hormuz-affected ports fell to zero for the month of May which is not surprising. There is a concern that with extended closures and shipping bottlenecks when it finally reopens, that many countries will not have access to the appropriate amount of fertilizer.

Soybean futures are trading higher this morning and were likely supported by a number of flash sales, including one to China last week. July soybeans are up 5-3/4 cents to $11.28-1/2 while November is up 4-3/4 cents to $11.47-1/4. July soybean meal is up $0.80 to $302.10, and July soybean oil is up 0.50 cents to 70.19 cents.
The supposed “Super El Nino” this year is expected to be favorable for Brazilian early soybeans, but also heighten risks as weather should turn drier earlier than normal due to this pattern.
Like corn, the soybean market has faced pressure as traders continue to remove weather risk premium from prices. Forecasts calling for favorable temperatures and timely rainfall across key growing regions have reinforced expectations for strong crop development and the potential for a large U.S. soybean harvest.

All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day with July KC wheat down 3 cents to $6.02-3/4, KC down 5 cents to $6.39, and Minn wheat down 5-1/4 cents to $6.17-3/4. The higher dollar index could be weighing on wheat prices.
In France, wheat crop conditions have fallen as a result of strong heat waves. 76% of the crop is rated good to excellent which is down from the previous week, and the country placed an amber alert for hot temperatures in central and eastern regions of the country.
In contrast to the US’s failed wheat crop, the Syrian wheat harvest is expected to be more than twice as large this year as the last. The crop is expected to be at least 2.3 mmt and was bolstered by significant rains.

Amanda Brill