TFM Morning Update 06-23-2023


  • Corn is trading lower this morning as weather models have turned slightly wetter for the driest parts of Illinois and Iowa this weekend.
  • Illinois is currently the most in need of rain out of the bunch, but wide coverage will be needed and so far weekend rains have been spotty.
  • Argentina’s corn forecast has been cut by 5.5% due to poor yields after drought, and analysts have cut estimated production by 2 mmt to 34 mmt.
  • According to NOAA, US corn crops in drought areas have jumped to 64%, up 7% from the previous week.


  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning pulled lower by soybean meal while soybean oil trades slightly higher in the front months.
  • Wetter weather models have put pressure on soybeans, but the release of the Renewable Fuel Standard blending mandates was very negative for soybean oil and has dragged down the complex.
  • Estimates for soybean export sales are showing an average of 506k, but could be as low as 300k.
  • Forecasts for the Corn Belt over the next 6-10 days are showing above-normal rain and near-normal temperatures which could continue to put pressure on corn and soybeans.


  • Wheat is trading lower this morning as it follows moves in corn and has also met some technical resistance after being overbought.
  • There has been excess rainfall delaying harvest in Texas and Oklahoma and early yield results have not been very good so far.
  • The UN’s FAO is launching a program to clear mines from Ukrainian land so that small farms and rural families will be able to grow food.
  • France has begun harvesting its wheat crop and rain is forecast to improve in central France while remaining dry in northwestern France.


Amanda Brill

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