TFM Morning Update 06-23-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning as weather models have turned slightly wetter for the driest parts of Illinois and Iowa this weekend.
Illinois is currently the most in need of rain out of the bunch, but wide coverage will be needed and so far weekend rains have been spotty.
Argentina’s corn forecast has been cut by 5.5% due to poor yields after drought, and analysts have cut estimated production by 2 mmt to 34 mmt.
According to NOAA, US corn crops in drought areas have jumped to 64%, up 7% from the previous week.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning pulled lower by soybean meal while soybean oil trades slightly higher in the front months.
Wetter weather models have put pressure on soybeans, but the release of the Renewable Fuel Standard blending mandates was very negative for soybean oil and has dragged down the complex.
Estimates for soybean export sales are showing an average of 506k, but could be as low as 300k.
Forecasts for the Corn Belt over the next 6-10 days are showing above-normal rain and near-normal temperatures which could continue to put pressure on corn and soybeans.

Wheat is trading lower this morning as it follows moves in corn and has also met some technical resistance after being overbought.
There has been excess rainfall delaying harvest in Texas and Oklahoma and early yield results have not been very good so far.
The UN’s FAO is launching a program to clear mines from Ukrainian land so that small farms and rural families will be able to grow food.
France has begun harvesting its wheat crop and rain is forecast to improve in central France while remaining dry in northwestern France.

Amanda Brill