TFM Morning Update 06-24-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower to start the week as trade looks to rainfall in parts of the eastern Corn Belt this weekend while ignoring areas in Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota that saw flooding.
In Brazil, the harvesting of both first and second crop corn crops are off to a good start thanks to warm and dry weather in key regions. Sales have been slow however, as buyers wait for lower prices and sellers hold firm.
Friday’s export sales report showed total sales below the range of trade estimates at 20.1 million bushels. Despite lower sales, they are still 2.5% above the 15-year average of total sales.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning as futures bounce off long term support after the November contract closed at the lowest level since 2021. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is slightly lower this morning.
On Friday, the USDA reported that 640.5k tons of soybeans were sold last week which compares to 380.1 mb the previous week and 626.3 mb a year ago. China was a top buyer of US soybeans at 214k tons.
With China making such a large soybean purchase last week, it may be an indicator that the US is becoming more competitive with Brazil, or that the recent weather events in Brazil have cut the size of their crop to an estimate closer than CONAB’s.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC wheat trading lower while Minneapolis wheat remains slightly higher. As prices slide back down to their pre-rally levels, importers may show renewed interest.
World weather is currently threatening for the wheat crops with both Russia and Ukraine forecast to receive hot and dry weather in the coming months, potential flooding in the US Midwest, but Australia receiving more rain than expected.
In Russia, SovEcon has revised wheat production lower again at 127.4 mmt which would compare to 144.9 mmt the previous year. This production decrease may be priced in at this point considering that there were reports of dry weather and frosts causing problems months ago.

Amanda Brill