TFM Morning Update 06-24-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower again this morning as reports come in that the cease fire agreement made last night between Israel and Iran seems to have faltered with both countries accusing the other of breaking the deal overnight. This has put pressure on the grain and energy complexes.
Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report was friendly as the crop ratings were lowered by 2 points to 70% good to excellent. 97% of the crop is emerged and 4% is silking.
The CFTC report showed funds as sellers of corn as of June 17. They sold 20,768 contracts which increased their net short position to 184,788 contracts.

Soybeans are trading lower to start the day under pressure from sharply lower soybean oil which is following crude oil. Crude has lost over 10 dollars a barrel in value from yesterday’s high as trade now assumes that Iran will not close the Strait of Hormuz.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report saw crop conditions for soybeans unchanged with the good to excellent rating still at 66%. 96% of the crop is planted, 90% is emerged, and 8% is blooming.
Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans. They bought 33,526 contacts which increased their net long position to 59,165 contracts. They bought 21,375 contracts of bean oil and sold 20,273 contracts of meal.

All three wheat classes are trading lower again this morning and have unfortunately taken the brunt of the recent sell-off in grains despite having a more compelling bullish story as crop ratings decline and funds are poised to cover a portion of their short position.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw winter wheat crop ratings down 3 points to 49% good to excellent while spring wheat ratings also fell by 3 points to 54%. 19% of winter wheat is harvested, 93% of spring wheat is emerged, and 17% is headed.
The CFTC report saw funds as buyers of wheat, they bought back 12,658 contracts of Chicago wheat which reduced their net short position to 81,353 contracts. They bought back 12,813 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 62,151 contracts.

Amanda Brill