TFM Morning Update 06-25-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning but has not yet taken out yesterday’s low of $4.43 in the December contract. While parts of the northern Corn Belt were flooded, the forecast for the eastern Belt which has been dry has some rain in it which is pressuring the market.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed the corn crops good to excellent rating falling by 3 points to 69% which compares to 72% a week ago at this time. 97% of the corn crop is emerged, and 4% of the corn crop is silking.
The CFTC report was delayed until yesterday afternoon, but as of June 18, funds were seen buying back 20,817 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 191,462 contracts.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning but like corn, have not taken out yesterday’s lows. The November contract posted a key reversal higher by making new contract lows before reversing and closing higher on the day. Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed the soybean good to excellent rating falling by 3 points to 67% which was 1 point below the trade estimate and compares to 51% a year ago. 90% of the soybean crop is emerged and 8% is blooming.
Monday’s CFTC report showed funds selling additional contracts as of June 18. They added 30,090 contracts to their net short position bringing it to 105,970 contracts and have likely added more shorts since that day.

Wheat is mixed this morning wit Chicago and KC wheat trading lower while Minneapolis wheat is slightly higher. The crop progress report was bullish for spring wheat but bearish for winter wheat which saw conditions improving.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw spring wheat rated 71% good to excellent which was 4 points below the average trade guess and down 5 points from last week. 18% of the crop is headed. In winter wheat, 52% of the crop is rated good to excellent which was 3 points above the average trade guess and 3 points above last week. 40% of the winter crop is harvested.
Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds adding more shorts to their position by selling 7,616 contracts which leaves them net short 52,732 contracts.

Amanda Brill