TFM Morning Update 06-25-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower again this morning, with December dipping to a new contract low during overnight trade.
Rainfall continues to move through Iowa, Nebraska, and the Northern Corn Belt, reinforcing a largely non-threatening weather outlook for the U.S. corn crop into early July.
In Brazil, Agroconsult raised its estimate for second crop corn production to a record 123.3 MMT—10.4 MMT above their May forecast. The safrinha crop is expected to account for roughly 80% of Brazil’s total corn output this season.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower to start the day, following sharp losses over the past three sessions.
Soybean oil futures are also modestly weaker this morning, aiming to break a five-day losing streak. The recent cease-fire agreement between Israel and Iran has weighed heavily on crude oil, which is now $13 per barrel below Monday’s high—dragging soybean oil prices lower in tandem.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions unchanged, with 66% of the crop rated good to excellent. Planting is now 96% complete, with 90% emerged—up from 84% the previous week. Additionally, 8% of the crop has reached the blooming stage.

Wheat futures are mixed this morning, with spring wheat holding near unchanged while the winter wheats are slightly lower.
For now, traders appear largely unconcerned with generally poorer winter wheat conditions across most states compared to 2024, despite weekly declines in Monday’s Crop Progress report and a slower-than-normal harvest pace.
Globally, favorable conditions in France and steadily improving crop estimates for Russia in recent weeks continue to weigh on wheat futures.

Keegan Madigan