TFM Morning Update 06-26-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after Tuesday’s tumble in prices. Except for isolated pockets, lack of moisture does not appear to be an issue for any in the heart of the Corn Belt over the next seven days.
US corn basis on the national index moved higher again this week to 13-1/4 cents under the July contract. This is the highest level of the marketing year. Margins for ethanol as well as other end users have continued to improve as of late.
The average estimate for corn stocks as of June 1 that will be released on Friday’s USDA report is 4.87 bb, this would be up 700 mb from June 1 of 2023. The average acreage estimate is 90.27 million acres, up 230,000 acres from the March intentions estimate.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after Tuesday’s disappointing washout in prices.
Rains have fallen over the last 72 hours in some of the recently drier portions of the Midwest east of the Mississippi. With such poor new crop export sales on the books, traders seem unconcerned about recent flooding in the upper Midwest.
Friday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks report is expected to show soybean stocks as of June 1 at 957 mb, up 161 mb from June 1 of last year. U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to come in at 86.86 million, up about 350,000 acres from the March estimate.

In recently rare fashion, all three wheat contracts are trading higher this morning. The entire wheat complex has been in oversold territory for about three weeks now with little to no relief in continued selling pressure.
Harvest selling pressure has been a likely aid in the continued recent fall in wheat prices. Strong test weights and better than expected yields have been a common theme as harvest has progressed across Kansas.
The USDA’s end of week and monthly report is expected to show all wheat stocks at 682 mb, up 112 mb from June 1 of 2023. All wheat acres are expected to come in at 47.57 million acres, up about 79 million acres from the March estimate.

Keegan Madigan