TFM Morning Update 06-27-2023

CORN

Corn is trading sharply lower this morning despite yesterday’s poor crop progress results as weather patterns turn wetter.
In corn, good to excellent ratings fell 5% from the previous week and are now at just 50%. 4% of corn is silking which is in line with the 5-year average.
Rain forecasts overnight have changed to include SE Nebraska, southern Iowa, and southern Illinois, areas of the Corn Belt that have been in the most need of moisture.
The June Acreage report will be released on Friday and is expected to show a small decrease in acres at 91.85 ma which would be down from 92 ma the previous month.

Soybeans and both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning along with corn, again despite poor crop ratings and thanks to improved weather forecasts.
Soybean’s good to excellent ratings fell by 3% to 51% which is the lowest rating for this time of year since 1988. Anticipated rains could bring the crop back to life.
Friday morning’s acreage report is expected to show soybean acres up slightly from May intentions with average trade guesses at 87.67 ma, up from 87.45 ma.
Yesterday’s soybean inspections were poor as Brazil keeps control of the export market with their cheaper soybeans.

Wheat is lower with the rest of the grain complex with Chicago futures leading the way as the wet forecast dominates today’s trade.
Winter wheat good to excellent ratings actually increased by 2% to 40%, but spring wheat fell by 1% to 50%. Winter wheat is now 24% harvested vs 15% last week.
While it is looking less and less likely that Russia will extend the Black Sea deal, markets appear uncaring and are focused on US weather.
Friday’s stocks report will estimate the final ending stocks of 22/23 and the average trade guess is 611 mb, down from 698 mb last year.

Amanda Brill