TFM Morning Update 06-28-2023


  • Corn is trading lower again this morning after yesterday’s selloff which was due to an apparent shift in the weather pattern to wetter.
  • First notice day for July corn is on Friday, and so far it has not lost nearly as much value as the deferred months with on hand supplies tight.
  • Current radar is showing some rain in northern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Wider coverage is being forecast over the next 5 days.
  • Ukraine’s 2023 grain crop is now being seen at 42.5 mmt, down from 53 mmt in 2022 with 21.1 mmt being corn.


  • Soybeans, soybean meal and oil are all lower this morning with weather as the main bearish factor. The 5-day forecast is showing good coverage for the entire Corn Belt.
  • Brazilian soy exports have reached up to 14.2 mmt in June compared to the 14.3 mmt forecast the previous week as the world looks to Brazil for soybeans.
  • Brazil’s crop is now expected to reach a record breaking 156 mmt of soybeans harvested, far above the initial analyst guesses earlier this year.
  • Friday morning’s Acreage report is expected to show soybean acres up slightly from May intentions with average trade guesses at 87.67 ma, up from the previous estimate.


  • Wheat is lower again this morning pulled down by lower corn and an improved weather forecast.
  • While it appears less likely that the Black Sea grain deal will be extended next month, two Ukrainian ports have continued to load ships including two wheat vessels in the last week.
  • In the US, HRW wheat conditions have been improving, and the spring wheat crop has gotten beneficial rains in North Dakota.
  • The EU’s soft wheat exports have risen by 11% year over year at 30.8 mmt, compared with 27.7 mmt the previous period with Morocco as a leading destination.


Amanda Brill

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