TFM Morning Update 06-29-2023

CORN

Corn is trading relatively unchanged this morning after two days of sharp selloffs. July is slightly higher while deferred contracts are about a cent lower.
Yesterday, a front moved through Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois, but 24-hour precipitation totals showed that most areas received about 1/4 inch.
There is still significant rain in the 5-day forecast with large amounts expected in the parts of Illinois that are the driest.
US ethanol stocks rose by 0.8% to 22.979 mln bbl with analysts having expected 22.755 mln bbl.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower with losses in soybean meal but gains in July and Aug soybean oil. Yesterday’s rain was beneficial, but the important weather is still ahead.
Brazilian soy exports have reached up to 14.2 mmt in June compared to the 14.3 mmt forecast the previous week as the world looks to Brazil for soybeans.
Brazil’s crop is now expected to reach a record breaking 156 mmt of soybeans harvested, far above the initial analyst guesses earlier this year.
Friday morning’s acreage report is expected to show soybean acres up slightly from May intentions with average trade guesses at 87.67 ma, up from the previous estimate.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC slightly lower but Minn around 3 cents higher as the market trades quietly ahead of Friday’s planted acreage report.
Friday’s USDA stocks report is expected to show June 1 wheat stocks down near 335 mb vs 611 mb a year ago.
Despite support from the anticipated end of the Black Sea grain deal next month, Ukraine is now expected to raise a wheat crop as high as 24.4 mmt compared to estimates ranging between 16 to 18 mmt.
Canadian wheat planting was only slightly lower than previously expected at 26.9 million acres with canola at 22.1.

Amanda Brill