TFM Morning Update 06-30-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower to start the day following Friday’s move higher as traders anticipate today’s acreage report with concern that it could be bearish. The acreage and grain stocks reports in June have a history of being market movers.
Today at 11am, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and analysts are expecting corn acres to increase slightly to 95.3 ma from 95.3, but some are anticipating an even larger number. Quarterly stocks are estimated at 4,648 mb.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn as of June 24. They bought 2,506 contracts leaving them with a net short position of 182,282 contracts.

Soybeans are trading higher to start the day as trade anticipates a friendly stocks and acreage report today. Soybean oil is lending support with higher prices while soybean meal is lower.
Today, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and although a change in soybean acres from 83.5 ma is not expected, there is some wiggle room with trade estimates between 82 and 85 ma. Quarterly stocks are estimated at 971 mb.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 35,717 contracts which reduced their net long position to 23,448 contracts. They sold 1,824 contracts of bean oil and sold 2,999 contracts of meal.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with only Minneapolis trading slightly higher. The July contracts in Chicago and KC wheat are higher but are also in delivery as of today.
Today’s acreage report is expected to show unchanged wheat acres from the March report at 45.4 million, but some analysts think that number could be lower with acres lost to more corn. Estimates for quarterly stocks are at 835 mb for wheat.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 16,686 contracts which left them net short 64,667 contracts. They bought back 18,689 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 43,462 contracts.

Amanda Brill