TFM Morning Update 07-01-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning with forecasts for the Corn Belt remaining wet in most areas, but the northwestern and central regions which have already gotten flooded are expected to receive rain as well.
Friday’s USDA acreage and stocks report was bearish for corn with 91.5 million acres of corn expected to be planted which was above the average trade guess and above the planting intention number from March. Stocks were also higher than expectations.
Funds were aggressive sellers of corn as of June 25 and sold 86,204 contracts which increased their net short position to 277,666 contracts.

Soybeans are mixed to start the day with the new front month, August, trading slightly higher while November soybeans are lower in more bull spreading action that points to the demand for cash soybeans. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is higher.
Friday’s stocks and acreage report was mostly friendly for soybeans with planted acres below trade expectations at 86.1 million acres, but the stocks report was slightly bearish at 970 million bushels which was above expectations.
According to Friday’s CFTC report, funds were heavy sellers across the ag complex and sold 23,693 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 129,663 contracts.

Wheat is mixed to start the week with Chicago and Minneapolis trading slightly higher but KC lower. Prices have fallen sharply from the May high as trade shrugs off concerns that the Russian wheat crop may be short due to weather.
Friday’s stocks and acreage report was neutral to slightly bearish with the estimate of harvested acres increasing from 38.0 million to 38.8 million. Wheat stocks were called at 702 mb at the end of 23/24 which was the most in three years but also the third lowest in 10 years.
Funds were sellers of wheat as of June 26 selling 17,755 contracts which increased their net short position to 70,487 contracts.

Amanda Brill