TFM Morning Update 07-02-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after the Crop Progress Report was released yesterday afternoon and showed a decline in crop ratings. Areas in the northwest Belt also received more rains and are under flood advisories again.
Yesterday’s crop progress saw the good to excellent rating for the corn crop fall 2 points to 67% which was also below the trade estimate. 11% of the crop is now silking which compares to 4% last week and 7% a year ago.
Heavy rains are expected to fall in Iowa which is already under a flood watch and Missouri this week, and the USDA said that 53% of Minnesota and 52% of Wisconsin are experiencing surplus topsoil moisture, so crop conditions are very variable and production will be hard to project.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning for a second consecutive day as bullish sentiment continues after the release of the acreage report which shows significantly less soybean acres. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well this morning.
Yesterday’s crop progress was mostly neutral for soybeans showing no change in the good to excellent rating while trade was looking for a 1 point drop. 20% of the crop is blooming which is on par with a year ago, and 3% of the crop is blooming, also the same pace as last year.
Domestic crush demand has been very firm and has been a supportive factor with export demand so slow. 192 mb of soybeans were crushed in May which is higher than a year ago. Profitable crush margins are supporting the demand.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as a lack of export demand weighs on prices with the world still looking to Russia to meet its feed needs. The ongoing winter wheat harvest is adding pressure as well.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed winter wheat as 54% harvested and the crop rated 51% good to excellent which is down 1 point from last week, but is up significantly from last year’s 40%.
In spring wheat, the crop is called 72% good to excellent which was above trade estimates and up 1 point from last week. 38% of the crop is headed which compares to 18% last week.

Amanda Brill