TFM Morning Update 07-02-2025

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

CORN

Corn is trading lower to start the day but remains off yesterday’s contract lows that were made after crop progress results showed another 1 point improvement to crop ratings. Yesterday, September corn found support right at the $4.00 mark.
Last week, the European weather model forecasted a hotter and drier July, but so far, the 6-10 day forecast shows above average precipitation for the Corn Belt which is weighing on prices.
US corn used for ethanol came in at 449.4 million bushels in May which was up from April but down 1.3% from a year ago at this time.

Soybeans are trading higher following bullish crushing numbers and oversold futures yesterday which saw the August contract fall to $10.16-1/4 before recovering, the lowest level since April. Meal is lower while bean oil leads the complex higher.
The USDA released its monthly oilseed report which showed soybean crushings for May at 203.7 million bushels. This was up 6.3% from the same period last year and also up from the previous month. Crude oil production was 6.5% higher.
In Indian, palm oil imports shot higher by 61% to hit an 11-month high for the month of June as a result of lower domestic inventories. This is bullish for all veg oils.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower to start the day following yesterday’s rally which brought September Chicago wheat futures back to the 50-day moving average. Trade will look for a close above this level.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed another decline in crop ratings by 1 point which has added some risk premium as funds hold a large net short position, but the ongoing winter wheat harvest has tempered this rally a bit.
More rain is expected to fall this week in soft red wheat areas which could delay harvest at times. Europe is currently experiencing a heat wave which could slow harvest there as well.

Amanda Brill