TFM Morning Update 07-07-2025

CORN

Corn is trading sharply lower this morning and gapped down in overnight trade following the holiday weekend. Traders were anticipating an announcement from President Trump regarding trade in Iowa which did not come.
Last week on Wednesday and Thursday, futures moved significantly higher on likely short covering but also on some expectation of friendly news. Instead, weather forecasts remain bearish with good amounts of moisture.
Last week, export sales were good for corn at 1,473k tons which compared to 1,047k the previous week and 669k tons the previous year. Top buyers were Mexico, South Korea, and Colombia.

Soybeans are significantly lower along with the rest of the grain complex following the absence of an announced trade deal, but also worrying traders is the upcoming tariffs in which the original pause is approaching its deadline. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
Argentina has now completed its soybean harvest and has also updated its production, citing better than expected yields. The country is said to have produced 50.3 mmt which is slightly above last year’s 50.2 mmt.
Last week’s export sales for soybeans were below expectations at 701k tons but larger than last week’s 559k and last year’s 379k. Top buyers were unknown destinations, Egypt, and Mexico.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning but are not faring quite as poorly as corn and soybeans so far. The winter wheat harvest is behind schedule but is still pressuring the market, and spring wheat received needed rains over the weekend.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global grain production is expected to come in at a record high for the 25/26 season as supplies are seen to be large enough to meet demand. Wheat stockpiles are estimated at 321.0 mmt which was up 11m tons from the previous forecast.
Last week’s export sales report saw wheat sales at 586k tons which compared to 255k the previous week and 805k tons the previous year. Top buyers were the Philippines, Thailand, and the Dominican Republic.

Amanda Brill