TFM Morning Update 07-08-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower to start the day and may be backing off after large gains the past 2 days. September corn is down 1-1/4 cents to $4.42 while December is down 1-1/2 cents to $4.62-1/2.
While weather forecasts in the 8-14 day range show hotter and drier conditions, rains are still expected to fall in the Midwest this weekend which would set the crop up well for a stretch of drier weather.
The weekly EIA’s ethanol production report for the week ending July 3 is expected to show between 1.08 and 1.13 million barrels which would be steady with 1.11 million last week. Ethanol stocks are expected to be within 24.6 and 24.8 million which would also be steady with last week.

Soybean futures are trading higher this morning as President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over. August soybeans are up 7 cents to $12.00-1/2 while November is up 1 cent to $11.98-3/4. August soybean meal is down $2.80 to $313.50 and August bean oil is up 1.37 cents to 69.94 cents as it follows crude oil higher.
Over the past few days, Iran has attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Last night, President Trump attacked Iran in retaliation, and this morning declared the cease-fire over. This will likely result in the closure of the Strait again, and crude oil prices are now up $3.44 to $73.88 a barrel.
For Friday’s WASDE report, soybean ending stocks for 26/27 are seen 22 mb higher at 332 mb, yield is expected to be 0.5 bpa higher at 53.0 bpa, and both Argentinian and Brazilian production are expected to be slightly higher.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day as poor crop ratings and lower ending stocks support the market. September Chicago wheat is up 2-3/4 cents to $6.21-1/4, KC is up 5-1/2 cents to $6.58-1/4, and Minn wheat is up 5 cents to $6.38.
Friday’s WASDE report expects 26/27 wheat ending stocks to fall by 26 mb to 718 mb. The US all wheat production number is expected to be lower, and world ending stocks are forecast to be lower for wheat as well by 2.3 mmt.
Spring wheat crop ratings fell to 57% good to excellent from 59% last week and compared to 50% a year ago while winter wheat ratings were unchanged at 26% good to excellent. 54% of spring wheat is headed and 59% of the winter wheat crop is now harvested.

Amanda Brill