TFM Morning Update 07-09-2025

CORN

  • Corn overnight low hit 398 vs Sep; Sep-Dec corn spread held support near -15 as Dalian corn futures dropped to 6-week lows on higher China supply talk.
  • Favorable U.S. Midwest weather during pollination have some looking for harvest lows toward 360; South American supplies weigh on U.S. export outlook.
  • Trump’s tariff hike on S. Korea and Japan adds trade risk; EU corn imports up 4%, while exports down 41% year-over-year.

SOYBEANS

  • U.S. new crop soybean export sales hit multi-decade lows; Dec-Mar soymeal spread hits record -10.
  • Global oilseed markets active: Dalian soy complex higher, lifting palm and soyoil; Brazil and Argentina soybean stocks above last year.
  • Traders eye EPA ruling on refinery exemptions; EU oilseed and meal imports up 13% and 14% year-over-year.

WHEAT

  • EU protein concerns are boosting talk of stronger milling wheat demand, while a smaller EU corn crop may increase wheat feeding.
  • EU 24/25 wheat exports seen at 21.6 MMT, down 34% from last year; current season exports also down 19% year-over-year.
  • Canadian wheat crop conditions strong: Manitoba 90% good/excellent, Saskatchewan 65% good/excellent, and Alberta 62% good/excellent.

Author

Matt Mattke

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