TFM Morning Update 07-11-2025

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning but has gotten a reprieve from its sell-off over the past two days. Yesterday’s export sales were friendly, but traders still anticipate a large crop.
Brazil’s CONAB has updated its estimates for 24/25 corn production at 132.0 mmt which is up 3.7 mmt from last month and is up 115.5 mmt from this time a year ago, a 14.3% increase.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report see corn ending stocks for 24/25 at 1.35 bb which would be down slightly from the June estimate due to an increase in export demand, yields are expected to be unchanged at 181.0 bpa.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning but are 10 cents off yesterday’s low which saw August get down to $10.01-3/4 showing that the $10 mark is resistance. Meal is higher this morning while bean oil is lower.
Pre-report estimates for today’s USDA report peg old crop soybean ending stocks at 358 mb which would be up from 350 mb the previous month. New crop ending stocks are estimated at 302 mb compared to 295 mb in June.
Brazil’s CONAB said that estimates for the 24/25 soybean crop would be cut to 169.49 mmt which would be down slightly from June citing slight decreases in yield, but is still a record crop.

Wheat is mixed to start the day as Chicago wheat is slightly lower while KC and Minneapolis are trading higher. Today’s WASDE report may show a reduction in winter wheat production, but world numbers could lean bearish.
Yesterday’s export sales for wheat came in at 577k tons which was down slightly from last week’s 586k but up from 240k tons a year ago at this time. Top buyers were South Korea, Japan, and Mexico.
For today’s USDA report, wheat ending stocks for 25/26 are estimated at 894 mb which would be down slightly from last month’s 898 mb as production is expected to come in slightly lower on lower yields.

Amanda Brill