TFM Morning Update 07-13-2023


  • December corn traded both sides of unchanged overnight and is now near the top of its 9-1/2 cent range as it recovers somewhat from yesterday’s bearish USDA report.
  • The USDA lowered the potential corn yield to 177.5 bushels/acres (-4.0 bu/acre), just above market expectations, but did not adjust the demand side of the balance sheet to establish a new carry out projection of 2.262 billion bushels for the 23/24 marketing year. This total was in line with analysts’ expectations. If realized, 23/24 ending stocks and stocks/use ratios would be the highest in 7 years.
  • The USDA lowered old crop export demand by 75 million bushels, and traders in the market pressured corn prices feeling that a projected new crop export demand of 2.100 billion bushels, up 450 mb from 22/23 projections, will be difficult to reach at current corn price levels.
  • Weekly ethanol production reported by the EIA came in below expectations and slipped to 1,032k barrels/day from the previous week’s 1,060k barrels/day.  Ethanol stocks also rose 1.8% to 22.658M barrels.
  • The Funds were active sellers yesterday following the USDA report, selling an estimated 10,500 contracts.  They are now estimated to be short 26,000 contracts.


  • The soybean complex is trading higher this morning with traders likely covering some short positions after yesterday’s bearish USDA report, with soybean meal and oil also trading higher.
  • The USDA surprised the market by adding 25 mb to the 22/23 carryout bringing the total to 255 mb (versus 232 mb expected) and only dropping the 23/24 carryout numbers 50 mb from last June to 300 mb, with an estimated yield of 52 bpa. Trade expectations were about 200 mb for 23/24 carry out with a 51.3 bpa yield.
  • South American production for 22/23 was left unchanged in today’s report with Brazil’s crop estimated at 156 mmt versus 156.2 mmt expected, and Argentina’s crop estimated at 25 mmt versus 23.6 mmt expected.
  • Funds were active sellers of soybeans following the bearish USDA report, selling an estimated 10,000 contracts. They are now estimated to be long 94,000 contracts.
  • Export sales will be announced later this morning for soybeans and are expected to range from 10 – 30 mb.


  • The wheat market is also posting a bit of a recovery from yesterday’s downturn with Chicago and Minneapolis mostly higher, and KC mixed.
  • In yesterday’s report, the USDA estimated 23/24 all wheat production at 1.739 bb versus expectations of 1.677 bb, and 1.665 bb last month. 22/23 wheat carryout was estimated at 580 mb versus expectations of 583 mb, and 23/24 carryout came in at 592 mb when the trade was looking for 565 mb.
  • The USDA estimated the winter wheat yield at 46.9 bpa, up 2.0 bu from last month’s projection, and for reference, last year’s average yield was 47.0 bpa.
  • Like corn and beans, funds were active sellers in Chicago wheat, selling an estimated 9,000 contracts. They are now estimated to be short 59,000 Chicago wheat contracts.
  • Export sales released later this morning are expected to range from 8 – 16 mb.


Scott Masters

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