TFM Morning Update 07-14-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning and the December contract has rallied off its overnight low by 9-1/2 cents. There has been some positivity to be found in strong exports and a relatively friendly WASDE report on Friday.
Friday’s USDA report reduced 24/25 US ending stocks by 25 mb to 1.340 bb thanks to increases in exports and feed demand. Brazilian corn production estimates were lowered by 2 mmt, and global stocks were reduced as well.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn as of July 9 by 2,602 contracts which reduced their net short position to 203,861 contracts, still a very large position.

Soybeans are higher to start the day and like corn, have rallied sharply off their overnight low. November soybeans have gained 15 cents since their low of $9.98-1/4 last night. Both soybean meal and oil are higher as well.
Last week’s WASDE report was mostly neutral with US ending stocks for 24/25 unchanged at 350 mb while 25/26 ending stocks were called 15 mb higher from the previous month at 310 mb. Exports were reduced while soybean crush was increased.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 6,641 contracts which left them with a net short position of 6,216 contracts. They sold 1,670 contracts of bean oil and bought 459 contracts of meal.

All three wheat classes are higher to start the week with KC wheat leading the way higher, over 10 cents off overnight lows. The WASDE report held few surprises for wheat, but traders may now be taking advantage of oversold conditions.
US 24/25 ending stocks were increased by 10 mb to 851 mb while 25/26 stocks were reduced slightly by 8 mb. Global stocks were lowered, but the Argentinian crop is expected to improve thanks to recent rainfall.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 7,477 contracts which decreased their net short position to 55,594 contracts. They sold 971 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 43,319 contracts.

Amanda Brill