TFM Morning Update 07-17-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after moving up to the 20-day moving average in overnight trade and then retreating. The $4.25 level may be temporary resistance.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 900k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,383k tons. This would compare to 2,151k last week and 924k tons a year ago.
After an unusually warm start to July, more above-normal heat is forecast for the second half of the month, raising concerns about potential pollination issues.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower to start the day after yesterday’s sharp reversal higher which was caused by a drop in the US dollar and a flash sale that was speculated to be going to China. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is higher.
President Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia earlier this week, with early details indicating the framework includes $4.5 billion in annual U.S. agricultural product purchases.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 450k and 1,000k tons with an average guess of 733k tons. This would compare to 751k last week and 735k a year ago.

All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day as prices consolidate towards the bottom of their recent trading range. Support for Chicago September wheat futures is around the $5.35 mark.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 700k tons with an average guess of 475k tons. This would compare to 577k last week and 579k a year ago.
SovEcon reports Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest is off to a slow start, with early yields trailing those of 2024.

Amanda Brill