TFM Morning Update 07-17-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading modestly lower this morning as the market continues to adjust to shifting weather forecasts. September corn is down 1-1/2 cents at $4.40, while December futures are 1-3/4 cents lower at $4.62-1/4.
Total U.S. corn export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year have reached 3.397 billion bushels, surpassing USDA’s current export forecast of 3.325 billion bushels. However, with roughly 520 million bushels still left to ship before the marketing year ends on August 31, there is a strong possibility that not all outstanding sales will be exported. Any unshipped sales could be rolled back onto the old-crop balance sheet, increasing ending stocks.
The National Weather Service’s latest 30-day outlook calls for cooler-than-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall across much of the Corn Belt into mid-August, with the heaviest precipitation expected across the western Corn Belt. If the forecast verifies, it would remain favorable for crop development.

Soybean futures are trading modestly lower this morning as the market consolidates following this week’s rally. August soybeans are down 3/4 of a cent at $11.94-1/4, while November futures are 1-1/4 cents lower at $11.93-3/4.
Thursday’s Export Sales report exceeded trade expectations for soybeans, with sales of 6.9 million bushels for 2025/26 and 65.0 million bushels for 2026/27.
China purchased 1.06 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last week, while another 625,000 metric tons were sold to unknown destinations. Total new-crop sales reached 3.6 million metric tons, providing support to the market. However, China will need to accelerate purchases significantly to reach its 25-million-metric-ton commitment for the year.

The wheat complex is mixed this morning as traders continue to monitor Black Sea developments and global supply prospects. Looking at September contracts, Chicago wheat is down 1/2 cent at $6.74-1/4, Kansas City wheat is up 2-1/4 cents at $7.18-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1/2 cent lower at $6.84-3/4.
USDA’s latest Drought Monitor showed 48% of U.S. winter wheat acres in drought as of July 14, up 1 percentage point from the previous week. Drought coverage across spring wheat acres increased 5 points to 24%, which could weigh on next week’s crop-condition ratings, although that remains 12 points below last year’s level.
Despite significant yield losses from recent heat waves, French wheat exports are expected to increase sharply. FranceAgriMer raised its 2025/26 export forecast by 0.2 million metric tons to 15.4 million, up roughly 48% from last year, driven largely by exports outside the European Union, which are projected to rise 112% year over year.

Matthew Lucas