TFM Morning Update 07-18-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after reports came in that Russia attacked Ukraine’s port city of Odessa, seemingly solidifying their withdrawal from the grain deal and retaliating for the Crimea bridge attack.
Crop conditions showed the good to excellent rating for corn improving by 2% to 57%, on par with trade guesses. This is still the third worst rating for this date since 1988, however.
The three worse ratings in mid July were in 1988, 2012, and 2005, but those crops did not trend higher in mid July, and this year’s corn crop has improved by 7% in just three weeks.
The 8 to 14 day forecast is still showing below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures primarily in the eastern Corn Belt which may be adding some weather premium today.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning and are being led by soybean meal which is on a strong rally, while soybean oil is slightly higher.
Crop progress showed the soy crop’s good to excellent rating improving by 4% last week to 55% which was above the average trade guess and a result of rainfall in the past few weeks.
Soybean meal has been rallying due to Argentina’s shrinking soy crop which is estimated at 21 mmt (4 mmt below the last USDA estimate), and Argentina is the largest exporter of soybean meal.
NOPA June soybean crush fell to a 9-month low of 165.023 million bushels, down from the 177.915 mb processed in May.

Wheat is trading higher alongside corn and soybeans this morning with Chicago leading the way, followed by KC. Russia’s attack on the port city of Odessa is likely helping futures.
Crop conditions showed spring wheat good to excellent ratings improving by 4% from last week to 51%, 10 points below last year’s rating at this time.
The winter wheat harvest is now 56% complete compared to 46% last week, but behind last year’s 71% at this time.
After Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack on the Crimean bridge over the weekend, Russia withdrew from the grain deal and promised retaliation which came in the way of the attack on Ukraine’s port city of Odessa, but only 1 person was injured and nearly all of the missiles and drones were shot down.

Amanda Brill